For the first time in about 5 years, Halloween hits on a Friday. Don't look for a stellar BO despite solid holdovers (HSM3, Saw V) and decent openers (Zack and Miri, Changeling). Changeling expands its run this weekend into a wide release, but even with Angelina, Clint, and the Oscar buzz, look for it at about $9 million.
Zack and Miri has the Kevin Smith clan behind it (a very loyal fan base) as well as Seth Rogen's and (though he has now part in making this movie) Judd Apatow's fan bases. I think it will close in on number 2 with $14 million.
HSM3 will probably stay at #1 with about $18 million ( a major drop from last week). Saw may still hold on to #2 - it is a Halloween pic. However, look for it to drop into the low teens.
The other opener is The Haunting of Molly Hartley. This pic is small in scope, has bad critical reception, lacked in marketing, and is saved only by its inclusion of "Gossip Girl" cast member Chace Crawford and a well-picked release date. The show's been solid in the ratings and has a very loyal fan base. It'll scare up single digits, at best $6 mill.
31.10.08
24.10.08
Box Office 10/24
While Disney denies it, the weekend is in the bag for High School Musical 3. The other big opener, Saw V will also perform, but does not have the pull of the HSM family franchise. HSM3 is the first of the HSM series to get theatrical berth and though it was a television hit in ratings and has become a cultural phenom, this is uncharted waters. If it is successful (which it will be), it introduces, perhaps, a new format in formulating franchises- especially for the other corporate studios who have television channels in their holdings (i.e. Paramount-Viacom's MTV, CBS; Fox; Universal- GE's NBC).
Numbers-wise I think we'll see $50 million for HSM- a big guess. Because they aren't in competing markets, Saw V will better the previous installment and take in $35 million opening weekend. That's right, I'm calling a HUGE weekend at the box office. The DJI is down another week and singing/dancing teeny-boppers and blood-filled torture scenes may just be the emotional cure people are looking for.
Numbers-wise I think we'll see $50 million for HSM- a big guess. Because they aren't in competing markets, Saw V will better the previous installment and take in $35 million opening weekend. That's right, I'm calling a HUGE weekend at the box office. The DJI is down another week and singing/dancing teeny-boppers and blood-filled torture scenes may just be the emotional cure people are looking for.
17.10.08
Box Office 10/17
Sorry, but no $ predictions this weekend-haven't had much time this week. As for spots, Max Payne will be number one for certain. The movie everyone is talking about this weekend though is W. BO wizards don't know what to think about it-it's controversial with a strong marketing push. I think it will do well just because of the air-time it's received.
3.10.08
Box Office 10/2
There is a jam-packed box office this weekend with a lot of openers and some decent holdovers from last weekend (Eagle Eye, Burn After Reading). Though they all target different demos, the competition might bring the individuals down.
The top two this weekend are Beverly Hills Chihuahua and Nick and Nora's Infinite Playlist. One's a family friendly sing-a-long helped out by a traditionally popular animal ("yo quiero taco bell"), and the other's a teen comedy with red-hot young star Michael Cera. Cera's one-note, deadpan awkwardness has seen solid response from the comedy crowd that went for Superbad and the Apatow laughers, as well as the quirky, indie audience that first hopped on the Juno bandwagon. Since Chihuahua has a wider appeal (someone has to bring those kids to the movie) and is opening on more screens (3,215 compared to Nick and Nora's 2,421), I think it's a shoe-in for the top spot. My guess is that it will bark up somewhere in the $26 million range while Nick and Nora will play to the likes of $18 million.
Other major openers include Blindness, a dark story about a worldwide epidemic that causes almost every person to go blind, based on a book that got rave reviews from my literary sources. With a star-studded cast and solid marketing strategy, it could carry some weight, but something tells me with the current mood of the country (see: the Dow Jones), most people will opt for something lighter. Look for the 35+ crowd at the theaters. The movie might see (haha... get it?) double digits, but will probably come in somewhere around $7.5 million.
How to Lose Friends and Alienate People, with starrers Kirsten Dunst, Simon Peg, and, a college fan-boy fav, Megan Fox, is a comedy that looks rotten so far, but may make for a decent show if my prediction about the need for light entertainment holds true.
Other small screeners are the western Appaloosa, which has received decent reviews and widens its release, and Bill Maher's docu, Religulous, which, personally, seems like the best shot at real entertainment this weekend.
An American Carol, the blatant spoof on Michael Moore, looks silly, stupid, and saveable only by a member of the Farley family. Don't look for it in the top ten.
The top two this weekend are Beverly Hills Chihuahua and Nick and Nora's Infinite Playlist. One's a family friendly sing-a-long helped out by a traditionally popular animal ("yo quiero taco bell"), and the other's a teen comedy with red-hot young star Michael Cera. Cera's one-note, deadpan awkwardness has seen solid response from the comedy crowd that went for Superbad and the Apatow laughers, as well as the quirky, indie audience that first hopped on the Juno bandwagon. Since Chihuahua has a wider appeal (someone has to bring those kids to the movie) and is opening on more screens (3,215 compared to Nick and Nora's 2,421), I think it's a shoe-in for the top spot. My guess is that it will bark up somewhere in the $26 million range while Nick and Nora will play to the likes of $18 million.
Other major openers include Blindness, a dark story about a worldwide epidemic that causes almost every person to go blind, based on a book that got rave reviews from my literary sources. With a star-studded cast and solid marketing strategy, it could carry some weight, but something tells me with the current mood of the country (see: the Dow Jones), most people will opt for something lighter. Look for the 35+ crowd at the theaters. The movie might see (haha... get it?) double digits, but will probably come in somewhere around $7.5 million.
How to Lose Friends and Alienate People, with starrers Kirsten Dunst, Simon Peg, and, a college fan-boy fav, Megan Fox, is a comedy that looks rotten so far, but may make for a decent show if my prediction about the need for light entertainment holds true.
Other small screeners are the western Appaloosa, which has received decent reviews and widens its release, and Bill Maher's docu, Religulous, which, personally, seems like the best shot at real entertainment this weekend.
An American Carol, the blatant spoof on Michael Moore, looks silly, stupid, and saveable only by a member of the Farley family. Don't look for it in the top ten.
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